Opposition to Obamacare run the gamut from those who view it as a communist plot to overthrow America to some who think it doesn't go far enough. Stuck in the middle are those like me who see it as a poorly conceived partisan attempt to mollify political patrons in the guise of a healthcare bill. The majority of Americans still oppose Obamacare despite the public relations efforts of the administration.
Republicans, have made opposition to the bill a cornerstone of their platform, and armed with their new majority in the House of Representatives are faced with a dilemma. How best to defeat Obamacare without alienating the American people, who still want some kind of healthcare reform? What the leaders of the Republican party decide will determine both the future of healthcare reform and possibly the political landscape of America.
The Republicans best hope is a supreme court overturning the law. Such a decision would accomplish their goals while simultaneously absolving the Congress of any responsibility. I have discussed this extensively(see 9/3/10, 10/15/10, 12/14/10) . I still see a 5-4 court decision, with the outcome still undetermined. Frankly, it is a toss-up, you can place your bets on Intrade.
The most conservative strategy for the Republicans is to wait for the 2012 elections. Four new senate seats and a Republican president would be sufficient to repeal the bill. An electoral win would validate their opposition to the legislation, and could be considered as reflecting the will of the American people. Campaigning against Obamacare could be the centerpiece of the 2012 election, a policy which worked for the Republicans in 2010. Such a strategy would require both restraint and faith in the eventual victory, which might not appeal to the more radical elements in the party.
The most extreme opponents of the legislation are unwilling to wait or accept the vagaries entailed in future elections. As the article today discusses, Iowa congressman King is willing to go all in and shut down the government in order to overturn Obamacare. The federal budget is an all or none affair. If the funding for the healthcare plan is not included in the budget, the President can refuse to sign the bill, plunging the US into another budget crisis. The ramifications would be severe, the fallout widespread, and the winner uncertain. Such a course would be both risky for the country, and certainly negative for the political process.
The course the House leadership takes will tell us much about who really controls the soul of the Republican party, and try the patience of the American people. What this has to do with healthcare, I haven't a clue.
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